| ABSTRACT | 第6-8页 |
| 摘要 | 第9-18页 |
| 1 INTRODUCTION | 第18-50页 |
| 1.1 Background of Research | 第18-21页 |
| 1.2 Judgment and Crowd Wisdom in Health Forecasting | 第21-27页 |
| 1.3 Previous Application of Crowd Wisdom in Medical Decision Making | 第27-31页 |
| 1.4 Research Problem and Justification | 第31-34页 |
| 1.5 Research Aim and Objectives | 第34-35页 |
| 1.6 Research Questions | 第35-36页 |
| 1.7 Research Framework | 第36-38页 |
| 1.8 Hypothesis Development | 第38-42页 |
| 1.9 Innovation Points | 第42-45页 |
| 1.10 Profile of Study Area | 第45-47页 |
| 1.11 Structure of Dissertation | 第47-50页 |
| 2 LITERATURE REVIEW AND CONCEPTUAL THEORY | 第50-78页 |
| 2.1 Healthcare Forecasting | 第50-51页 |
| 2.2 Healthcare Forecasting Model | 第51-64页 |
| 2.2.1 Time Series Moving Average | 第51-52页 |
| 2.2.2 Time Series Exponential Smoothing | 第52-53页 |
| 2.2.3 Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) | 第53-55页 |
| 2.2.4 Causal/Regression Models | 第55-57页 |
| 2.2.5 Artificial Neural networks (ANNs) | 第57-60页 |
| 2.2.6 Probabilistic Forecasting | 第60-62页 |
| 2.2.7 Judgmental Methods | 第62-64页 |
| 2.3 Evolution of Crowd Wisdom | 第64-67页 |
| 2.4 Prediction Markets | 第67-78页 |
| 2.4.1 The First Prediction Markets | 第68-69页 |
| 2.4.2 Corporate Applications of PM | 第69-71页 |
| 2.4.3 Issues Facing the Corporate Application of Prediction Markets | 第71-75页 |
| 2.4.4 Flaws of Prediction Market | 第75-78页 |
| 3 METHODS AND ANALYTICAL PROCEDURE | 第78-97页 |
| 3.1 Research Method | 第79-80页 |
| 3.2 Quantitative and Qualitative Research | 第80-81页 |
| 3.3 Primary and Secondary Data | 第81-82页 |
| 3.4 Model Selection and Estimation | 第82-90页 |
| 3.4.1 Multiple Time Series Linear Regression | 第82-83页 |
| 3.4.2 Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average | 第83-85页 |
| 3.4.3 Modeling the Exponential Smoothing | 第85-87页 |
| 3.4.4 Modeling the Artificial Neural Networks | 第87-88页 |
| 3.4.5 Prediction Market Model | 第88-90页 |
| 3.5 Preliminary Analysis | 第90-95页 |
| 3.5.1 Test of Reliability of Data and Instrument | 第91-92页 |
| 3.5.2 Test of Normality of Data | 第92-93页 |
| 3.5.3 Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) | 第93-94页 |
| 3.5.4 Test of Independence errors and Multicolinearity | 第94-95页 |
| 3.6 Models Evaluation | 第95-97页 |
| 4 FORECASTING HEALTH SERVICE DEMAND | 第97-123页 |
| 4.1 Forecasting Patient Flow Using Prediction Market | 第97-101页 |
| 4.2 Forecasting Patient Flow Forecast Using Artificial Neural Network | 第101-107页 |
| 4.3 Forecasting Patient Flow Using Time Series Regression Model | 第107-111页 |
| 4.4 Analysis of Modeling and Predicting Performance of Patient Flow Using ExponentialSmoothing Method | 第111-114页 |
| 4.5 Forecasting Patient Flow using m SARIMA Model | 第114-119页 |
| 4.6 Comparison of In-Sample Model Goodness of Fit of Five Models | 第119-120页 |
| 4.7 Comparison of Post-sample Forecast Accuracy | 第120-123页 |
| 5 FORECASTING HEALTH SERVICE OUTCOME | 第123-136页 |
| 5.1 Research Data | 第123-126页 |
| 5.2 Results of Prediction Market Model | 第126-127页 |
| 5.3 Results of Cox Hazard Proportion and Neural Network Models | 第127页 |
| 5.4 Preliminary Analysis | 第127-136页 |
| 5.4.1 Test of Gaussian (Normality) Distribution | 第128页 |
| 5.4.2 Test of Multicolinearity | 第128-136页 |
| 6 DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK | 第136-145页 |
| 6.1 Prospects of Medical Use of Wisdom of the Crowd | 第136-138页 |
| 6.2 Challenges of Medical Use of Wisdom of the Crowd | 第138-145页 |
| 7 CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATION | 第145-148页 |
| 7.1 Research Outcome and Policy Proposal | 第145-146页 |
| 7.2 Limitations and Future Research Direction | 第146-148页 |
| LIST OF REFERENCES | 第148-162页 |
| PUBLICATIONS | 第162-163页 |
| AWARDS | 第163页 |
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