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随机供需作用下的道路阻塞概率模型分析
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摘要：本文考虑出行矩阵及出行路径选择的随机性因素对交通系统的需求（道路流量）的影响，行人干扰、天气、事故等随机性因素对通行能力的影响，进行了交通系统供需的随机性分析。借鉴可靠度理论，进行了阻塞发生的概率分析。
关键词：阻塞概率 可靠度 供需随机性
The Research of the Model of Traffic Blocking Probability Depending on the Randomicity Analysis Of Demanding-Supply
Abstract: Considering the influence of random factors such as the change of OD, the route choice to the traffic demanding （road flow） and the interrupting of bike, poor temp and accidents to the road capacity, and depending on the reliability theory, the happening probability of traffic is analyzed in the paper.
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