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War or Peace Over TAIWAN?
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The likelihood of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait,not soon but afterone or two decades,may be judged by answers to several questions:1)Will Chinastop politicians discount the high cost of using force to assert their claim to Taiwan?(This may be unlikely until after the first decade of the new millennium ,butit more probably could happen after the year 2010.) 2)At an earlier time ,in the near future ,do mutually beneficial termsexist for an interim truce across the strait,allowing a period of political evolutionon both sides that would enable a peaceful full settlement later?
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