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Currencies: Be Patient on the Down-Trade in USD/JPY
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[摘要] large portfolio outflows have helped support usd/jpy without official intervention in the past weeks; the general bounce in the usd was also a contributing factor. i reiterate my expectation that usd/jpy will trade toward 100 again, but it will not do so until these new fiscal year flows abate. however, 100 will likely remain a formidable barrier, one that will only be allowed to be broken if the nikkei continues to rise.
large portfolio outflows have helped support usd/jpy without official intervention in the past weeks; the general bounce in the usd was also a contributing factor. i reiterate my expectation that usd/jpy will trade toward 100 again, but it will not do so until these new fiscal year flows abate. however, 100 will likely remain a formidable barrier, one that will only be allowed to be broken if the nikkei continues to rise. i see this as an early-2005 risk.
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