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财政政策效力：理论综述与政策实践
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摘要：本文首先运用主流宏观经济学的理论和方法，从理论上对财政政策的效力进行全面的分析，得出的结论是，财政政策效力只存在于“自动稳定器中”，积极的财政政策在中短期内存在三种机制的挤出效应：利率机制、实际汇率机制和价格机制，而在长期内，不仅存在完全的挤出效应，而且会导致经济更加波动。美国20世纪60年代的持续的积极财政政策实践既是对理论的验证又是我国应该汲取的经验教训，然而本文在研究了我国1988—2003年的财政政策实践后发现，“冻火鸡式”的财政政策，应该为1988—1994年的剧烈经济波动负责；持续长期的紧缩性财政政策导致了1998年开始的通货紧缩；对2004年的局部经济过热以及可能发生的通货膨胀，1998年以来持续长期的积极财政政策应该难辞其咎。
关键词：财政自动稳定器，积极财政政策，政策效力，政策实践
the efficacy of fiscal policy：Survey of Theory and Practice
Abstract: Utilizing the theories and methods of mainstream-macroeconomics, this paper gave an all-round analysis of the efficacy of fiscal policy with the following conclusion: the efficacy of fiscal policy only lies in the “automatic stabilizer”; positive fiscal policy results in three crowding-out effect: mechanism of interest rate, real exchange rate and price in the short and medium run, while in the long run, it will not only have a complete crowding-out effect, but will lead to more economic fluctuations. The continual positive fiscal policy of America in 1960s was a perfect proof of the theory and a good lesson for China to learn. Nevertheless, it was found after researching on Chinese positive fiscal policy between 1988 and 2003 that “cold-turkey” fiscal policy should be responsible for the violent economic fluctuation of 1988-1994, the long-lasting deflationary fiscal policy led to actual deflation beginning from 1998, and the over-heating economy in some sectors and possible inflation of 2004 are partly contributable to the consistent positive fiscal policy since 1998.
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