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How Far is China Away from a Financial Crisis
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[摘要]in the last several years, policy makers and scholars in china became more and more concerned about the potential instability and risk of its financial system. during the 1997 asian financial crisis, china was lucky to avert a currency crisis and sustain relatively strong growth. this was largely attributable to its capital controls as well as a healthy and stable macroeconomic situation. but this does not mean that china can be immune from future financial crisis. doubts have been cast on the effectiveness of chinas capital controls. a more disturbing fact is that chinas bank situation was no better than those crisis-hit countries. the chinese financial system, like those of the crisis-hit countries, were heavily relied on banking intermediation, and when the crisis happened, the estimated ratio of non performing loans (npls) in china was 24-26 per cent, which was higher than that in korea and malaysia. there are widespread signs indicate that chinas banks are so fragile that they are not sustainable even in a closed economy, let alone when china opens up its capital markets.
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